2375 Sound Dr

Greenport West, NY 11944

$2,250,000C+

5 bd · 5.5 ba · 3,200 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Pending · 36 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $31,071/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$11,799
• Tax + insurance: −$2,489
• HOA: −$13
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$6,525
• Net cashflow: $10,244/mo
• Annual: $122,932/yr
• Cap rate: 11.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.51%
• DSCR: 1.87
• 1% rule: 1.38%
• Cash to close: $630,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/5.5-bath single-family listed at $2.25M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10k ($123k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($31k rent vs $2.25M).
• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($2.18M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $2.18M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $16k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $68k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,073 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Greenport Union Free School District (town): math 55% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #450 of 755 in NY (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 67 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $1.81M; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $630k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 8.0% in Greenport West — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.