80/82 Cedar Dr Dr

Bay City, MI 48708

$154,900C+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,066 sqft · Built 1956 · MultiFamily · Active · 92 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax + insurance: −$258
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $510/mo
• Annual: $6,114/yr
• Cap rate: 10.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.10%
• DSCR: 1.63
• 1% rule: 1.29%
• Cash to close: $43,372

Investor read

• This is a 1×2bd/1ba + 1×3bd/1ba units multifamily listed at $155k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $510 ($6k/yr) — positive. Per door: $255/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $141k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 5.5% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,000/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($51k/yr) (locally 528% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: exterior siding — Some discoloration
• Minor: interior walls — Paint chipping
• Minor: exterior landscaping — Overgrown grass