Palm B Plan

Loxley, AL 36527

$242,400F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,437 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 833 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,943/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,539
• Tax + insurance: −$489
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $-493/mo
• Annual: $-5,920/yr
• Cap rate: 4.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.20%
• DSCR: 0.68
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $82,174

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $242k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-493 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (8.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (19.9% below list).
• It's been on market 833 days — a 12% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $194k (19.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#95 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, employment B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rockwell Elementary School (math 46% / reading 76%, grade B, #60 of 627 statewide, top 9%, 724 students, 25% FRL); Spanish Fort Middle School (math 38% / reading 70%, grade B-, #20 of 257 statewide, top 8%, 622 students, 28% FRL); Spanish Fort High School (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #25 of 305 statewide, top 8%, 1,188 students, 24% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 436 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 70d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 833 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.