4917 Hillcrest Dr

Dundee, NY 14837

$650,000B+

169 bd · None ba · 3,800 sqft · Built 1961 · MultiFamily · Pending · 70 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $11,118/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,409
• Tax + insurance: −$1,201
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,335
• Net cashflow: $4,174/mo
• Annual: $50,083/yr
• Cap rate: 14.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.52%
• DSCR: 2.22
• 1% rule: 1.71%
• Cash to close: $182,000

Investor read

• This is a 13 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $650k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($50k/yr) — positive. Per door: $321/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($11k rent vs $650k).
• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($611k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $611k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $47k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $43k appreciation (6.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#576 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, health & safety D.
• Dundee Central School District (rural): math 42% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #431 of 590 in NY (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 107 units permitted in Yates County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Yates County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $450k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (6.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $182k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$75k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 14.0% vs local median 1.4% in Dundee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.