11099 14 Hwy

Big Flat, AR 72617

$145,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 1994 · Manufactured · Active · 249 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $841/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$177
• Net cashflow: $-190/mo
• Annual: $-2,280/yr
• Cap rate: 4.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.61%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 0.58%
• Cash to close: $40,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-190 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $111k (23.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $84k (42.0% below list).
• It's been on market 249 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $84k (42.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#481 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Mountain View School District (rural): math 34% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #107 of 238 in AR (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Timbo Elementary School (math 37% / reading 27%, grade F, #278 of 454 statewide, top 64%, 129 students, 98% FRL); Mountain View Middle School (math 36% / reading 42%, grade F, #102 of 201 statewide, top 52%, 369 students, 99% FRL); Timbo High School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #119 of 292 statewide, top 43%, 108 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 54% district-wide (44 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 47 units permitted in Baxter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Baxter County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $43k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 249 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.