56 Race Track Rd

Ticonderoga, NY 12883

$129,000D-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 490 sqft · Built 2024 · SingleFamily · Active · 375 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $862/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax + insurance: −$198
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$181
• Net cashflow: $-194/mo
• Annual: $-2,325/yr
• Cap rate: 4.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.44%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $36,120

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $129k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-194 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $95k (26.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $86k (33.2% below list).
• It's been on market 375 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $86k (33.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($892 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#182 in NY, #2,828 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Ticonderoga Central School District (rural): math 41% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #459 of 590 in NY (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ticonderoga Elementary School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,195 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 360 students, 65% FRL); Ticonderoga Junior-Senior High School (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,032 of 1,100 statewide, top 95%, 359 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 41% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP; 218 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Essex County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $129k implies a 84% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 2.2% in Ticonderoga — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 375 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.