104 Primrose Ln

Hollister, MO 65616

$264,900D+

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,978 sqft · Built 1995 · Other · Pending · 123 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,014/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,389
• Tax + insurance: −$195
• HOA: −$16
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $-9/mo
• Annual: $-106/yr
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.14%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $74,172

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $265k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-9 ($-106/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $263k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (24.0% below list).
• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $201k (24.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#109 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Branson R-IV (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #44 of 324 in MO (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cedar Ridge Elementary (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #284 of 1,115 statewide, top 30%, 503 students, 65% FRL); Branson Jr. High (math 48% / reading 49%, grade C-, #81 of 391 statewide, top 21%, 724 students, 51% FRL); Branson High (math 42% / reading 56%, grade D, #145 of 521 statewide, top 28%, 1,423 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 1061 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 331 units permitted in Taney County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Taney County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.5% in Hollister — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?