816 Gen D Macarthur Ave

Fort Denaud, FL 33935

$339,900D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,286 sqft · Built 2025 · Land · Active · 492 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,320/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,782
• Tax + insurance: −$566
• HOA: −$150
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $-666/mo
• Annual: $-7,992/yr
• Cap rate: 3.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.40%
• DSCR: 0.63
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $95,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $340k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-666 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (28.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (31.7% below list).
• It's been on market 492 days — a 12% lower offer ($299k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $232k (31.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $36k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#635 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Hendry (town): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #65 of 73 in FL (top 89%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Edward A. Upthegrove Elementary (math 43% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,383 of 2,144 statewide, top 65%, 541 students, 76% FRL); Labelle Middle School (math 37% / reading 38%, grade F, #395 of 571 statewide, top 70%, 817 students, 72% FRL); Labelle High School (math 42% / reading 41%, grade F, #284 of 667 statewide, top 43%, 1,451 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: 950 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 557 units permitted in Hendry County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hendry County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$58k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 3.0% in Fort Denaud — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• At $2,320/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 498% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 492 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.