3 bd · 1.5 ba ·
920 sqft ·
Built 1983
· SingleFamily
· Under Contract
· 140 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$6,091/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$3,141
Tax + insurance
−$549
HOA
−$120
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,279
Net cashflow
$1,002/mo
Annual
$12,019/yr
Cap rate
8.30%
Cash-on-cash
7.17%
DSCR
1.32
1% rule
1.02%
Cash to close
$167,720
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $599k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $599k).
It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($527k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $527k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Westport School District (suburban): math 74% / reading 82% proficiency, ranked #3 of 153 in CT (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 2% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Saugatuck Elementary School (math 69% / reading 80%, grade A, #44 of 553 statewide, top 10%, 434 students, 2% FRL); Bedford Middle School (math 73% / reading 79%, grade A, #4 of 175 statewide, top 2%, 729 students, 3% FRL); Staples High School (math 76% / reading 92%, grade A, #3 of 194 statewide, top 1%, 1,686 students, 2% FRL) — zoned schools at 3% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 196 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,151 units permitted in Western Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (714 in 5+ unit buildings).
6 sale attempts since 30y ago; this cycle's ask is 15259% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
Current owner paid $450k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.6% rent growth), your $168k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 1.7% in Staples — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-44Q88W3V1R7R32
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29