433 Eugene St

Lander, WY 82520

$115,000D-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 450 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Pending · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $784/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$165
• Net cashflow: $-58/mo
• Annual: $-699/yr
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.17%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $32,200

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-58 ($-699/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $105k (8.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $78k (31.9% below list).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $78k (31.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#10 in WY, #2,875 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: commute C-, amenities F.
• Fremont County School District # 1 (town): math 46% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #26 of 41 in WY (top 63%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gannett Peak Elementary (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #54 of 151 statewide, top 39%, 430 students, 27% FRL); Lander Middle School (math 37% / reading 49%, grade D-, #46 of 55 statewide, top 85%, 406 students, 28% FRL); Lander Valley High School (math 49% / reading 59%, grade C-, #24 of 75 statewide, top 35%, 599 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 22 units permitted in Fremont County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fremont County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 1.4% in Lander — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.