2020 Holly St

Harrisburg, PA 17104

$135,900C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,020 sqft · Built 1920 · Townhouse · Active · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,283/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$713
• Tax + insurance: −$227
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $74/mo
• Annual: $888/yr
• Cap rate: 6.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.33%
• DSCR: 1.10
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $38,052

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $136k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $74 ($888/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (5.6% below list).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($134k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $128k (5.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $940 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#107 in PA, #826 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D, crime F.
• Harrisburg City SD (urban): math 6% / reading 13% proficiency, ranked #535 of 539 in PA (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Harrisburg Hs (math 24% / reading 10%, grade F, #399 of 437 statewide, top 92%, 1,230 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 82% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 69 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 540 units permitted in Dauphin County in 2024 (194 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.