2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,233 sqft ·
Built 2004
· Condo
· Pending
· 4 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,999/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,442
Tax + insurance
−$372
HOA
−$122
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$420
Net cashflow
$-357/mo
Annual
$-4,283/yr
Cap rate
4.74%
Cash-on-cash
-5.56%
DSCR
0.75
1% rule
0.73%
Cash to close
$77,000
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $275k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-357 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (22.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (27.3% below list).
Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $200k (27.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 81/100 on livability (#14 in MO, #1,402 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
Wentzville R-IV (suburban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 324 in MO (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Journey Elementary (math 38% / reading 49%, grade F, #472 of 1,115 statewide, top 42%, 549 students, 11% FRL); Wentzville South Middle (math 49% / reading 51%, grade C, #68 of 391 statewide, top 18%, 1,131 students, 14% FRL); North Point High School (1,075 students, 10% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 700 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,021 units permitted in St. Charles County in 2024 (568 in 5+ unit buildings).
St. Charles County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.4% in Wentzville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-454G0X7EYNQSRE
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29