20259 Long Lake Dr

Hammond, LA 70403

$315,000D-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,312 sqft · Built 2019 · SingleFamily · Active · 180 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,490/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax + insurance: −$525
• HOA: −$37
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$523
• Net cashflow: $-247/mo
• Annual: $-2,959/yr
• Cap rate: 5.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.36%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $88,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $315k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-247 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $279k (11.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (20.9% below list).
• It's been on market 180 days — a 12% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $249k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#77 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute D+, crime F.
• Tangipahoa Parish (rural): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #63 of 98 in LA (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hammond Eastside Magnet (math 22% / reading 35%, grade F, #350 of 646 statewide, top 55%, 1,343 students, 68% FRL); Greenville Park Leadership Academy (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #199 of 218 statewide, top 92%, 447 students, 86% FRL); Hammond High Magnet School (math 19% / reading 28%, grade F, #167 of 265 statewide, top 63%, 1,750 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools at 73% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 381 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,085 units permitted in Tangipahoa Parish in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tangipahoa County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,490/mo this rent would consume 59% of the median local household income ($51k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 180 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?