15 bd · 15.0 ba ·
6,870 sqft ·
Built 1925
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 16 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$6,657/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,543
Tax + insurance
−$727
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,398
Net cashflow
$1,989/mo
Annual
$23,863/yr
Cap rate
11.21%
Cash-on-cash
17.57%
DSCR
1.78
1% rule
1.37%
Cash to close
$135,800
Investor read
This is a 15-bed/15.0-bath multifamily listed at $485k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($24k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $485k).
It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($478k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $478k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $52k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $48k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 63/100 on livability (#333 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, schools D-.
Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.1%/yr); 91 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
16 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $136k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$83k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 5.0% in Louisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $6,657/mo this rent would consume 226% of the median local household income ($35k/yr) (locally 815% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
CashFlowRE · CFR-45BAZK6XNB3709
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29