2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
990 sqft ·
Built 1984
· Condo
· Active
· 477 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,745/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$865
Tax + insurance
−$111
HOA
−$485
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$366
Net cashflow
$-83/mo
Annual
$-995/yr
Cap rate
5.69%
Cash-on-cash
-2.15%
DSCR
0.90
1% rule
1.06%
Cash to close
$46,200
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $165k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-83 ($-995/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (8.9% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
It's been on market 477 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 63/100 on livability (#744 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Forest Ridge Elementary School (math 55% / reading 59%, grade C+, #781 of 2,144 statewide, top 38%, 708 students, 67% FRL); Lecanto Middle School (math 49% / reading 49%, grade C-, #265 of 571 statewide, top 48%, 809 students, 55% FRL); Lecanto High School (math 46% / reading 53%, grade D, #179 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 1,630 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.
Market conditions: 448 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
7 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $53k; list at $165k implies a 212% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.9% in Citrus Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 477 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
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· Data 16 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29