2340 Chestnut Log Loop

Lithia Springs, GA 30122

$190,000C

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,648 sqft · Built 1974 · SingleFamily · Pending · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,869/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$222
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $259/mo
• Annual: $3,103/yr
• Cap rate: 7.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.83%
• DSCR: 1.26
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $53,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $259 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (1.6% below list).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $187k (1.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#311 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Douglas County (suburban): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #92 of 174 in GA (top 53%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Sweetwater Elementary School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #936 of 1,228 statewide, top 79%, 463 students, 85% FRL); Factory Shoals Middle School (math 11% / reading 29%, grade F, #349 of 470 statewide, top 75%, 840 students, 67% FRL); Lithia Springs Comprehensive High School (math 3% / reading 27%, grade F, #294 of 424 statewide, top 70%, 1,494 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 53% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 159 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 595 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Douglas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $69k; list at $190k implies a 176% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.6% in Lithia Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.