306 Oak Ln

Aspen, CO 81611

$1,100,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 772 sqft · Built 1973 · Manufactured · Active · 193 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,027/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,769
• Tax + insurance: −$728
• HOA: −$400
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,476
• Net cashflow: $-1,345/mo
• Annual: $-16,145/yr
• Cap rate: 4.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.24%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $308,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $1.10M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $862k (21.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $703k (36.1% below list).
• It's been on market 193 days — a 12% lower offer ($968k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $703k (36.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $118k of equity ($8k loan paydown + $110k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#142 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Aspen School District No. 1 In The County Of Pitkin And Sta (rural): math 36% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #18 of 86 in CO (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+22.1%/yr); 324 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 145 units permitted in Pitkin County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pitkin County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $195k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $610k; list at $1.10M implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$189k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• At $7,027/mo this rent would consume 102% of the median local household income ($83k/yr) (locally 566% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 193 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?