2203 W CT Key W

Kissimmee, FL 34741

$192,000F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,026 sqft · Built 1999 · Condo · Under Contract

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,663/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,007
• Tax + insurance: −$320
• HOA: −$348
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $-361/mo
• Annual: $-4,330/yr
• Cap rate: 4.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.05%
• DSCR: 0.64
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $53,760

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $192k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-361 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $190k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (13.4% below list).
• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $166k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#181 in FL, #2,841 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D-, employment D-.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Kissimmee Elementary School (math 38% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,670 of 2,144 statewide, top 78%, 859 students, 50% FRL); Kissimmee Middle School (math 28% / reading 31%, grade F, #469 of 571 statewide, top 84%, 1,289 students, 59% FRL); Celebration High School (math 42% / reading 56%, grade D, #193 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 2,769 students, 48% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 378 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.