1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
770 sqft ·
Built 2004
· Townhouse
· Active
· 307 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$879/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$197
Tax + insurance
−$26
HOA
−$314
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$185
Net cashflow
$158/mo
Annual
$1,896/yr
Cap rate
11.35%
Cash-on-cash
18.06%
DSCR
1.80
1% rule
2.35%
Cash to close
$10,500
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $38k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $158 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($879 rent vs $38k).
It's been on market 307 days — a 12% lower offer ($33k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $33k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $259 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#647 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, crime A; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, cost of living D+.
Lake Placid Central School District (town): math 46% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #344 of 590 in NY (top 58%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Watch-outs: HOA is 36% of rent.
Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 218 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
Essex County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
6 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $2k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 1.6% in Lake Placid — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 307 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-4764ZR0T8A4PPH
· Data 10 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29