609 Castro St Unit B

San Francisco, CA 94114

$849,000B+

1 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,900 sqft · Built 1913 · MultiFamily · Pending · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $11,392/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,452
• Tax + insurance: −$2,666
• HOA: −$400
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,392
• Net cashflow: $1,481/mo
• Annual: $17,772/yr
• Cap rate: 8.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.48%
• DSCR: 1.33
• 1% rule: 1.34%
• Cash to close: $237,720

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/4.0-bath multifamily listed at $849k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($11k rent vs $849k).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($836k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $836k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $87k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $81k appreciation (9.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; built in 1913 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.4%/yr); 116 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (9.5% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $238k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$139k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $11,392/mo this rent would consume 67% of the median local household income ($204k/yr) (locally 1336% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1913 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.