730 N River

Alma, MI 48801

$129,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,094 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Active · 316 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,072/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax + insurance: −$215
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$225
• Net cashflow: $-44/mo
• Annual: $-533/yr
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.48%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $36,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $129k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-44 ($-533/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $123k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (16.9% below list).
• It's been on market 316 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $107k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#345 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Alma Public Schools (town): math 28% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #288 of 540 in MI (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 47 units permitted in Gratiot County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gratiot County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.1% in Alma — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 316 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.