2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,026 sqft ·
Built 1989
· Townhouse
· Active
· 33 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,809/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$886
Tax + insurance
−$212
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$380
Net cashflow
$331/mo
Annual
$3,968/yr
Cap rate
8.64%
Cash-on-cash
8.39%
DSCR
1.37
1% rule
1.07%
Cash to close
$47,320
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $169k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $331 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $164k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#117 in FL, #1,790 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F.
Okaloosa (other): math 60% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #12 of 73 in FL (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 224 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,268 units permitted in Okaloosa County in 2024 (175 in 5+ unit buildings).
Okaloosa County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask is 11204% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
Current owner paid $112k; list at $169k implies a 51% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 4.2% in Wright — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-47EDK5CWNK59M0
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29