4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,848 sqft ·
Built 1930
· MultiFamily
· Pending
· 16 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,860/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$577
Tax + insurance
−$180
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$391
Net cashflow
$713/mo
Annual
$8,554/yr
Cap rate
14.07%
Cash-on-cash
27.77%
DSCR
2.24
1% rule
1.69%
Cash to close
$30,800
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $110k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $713 ($9k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $108k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $7k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (5.7% local appreciation)).
Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $14k; list at $110k implies a 715% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (5.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Cap rate 14.1% vs local median 5.2% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
CashFlowRE · CFR-47KZPY91RJB4AK
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29