3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
960 sqft ·
Built 1953
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 26 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,416/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$288
Tax + insurance
−$533
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$297
Net cashflow
$298/mo
Annual
$3,574/yr
Cap rate
22.10%
Cash-on-cash
56.44%
DSCR
3.51
1% rule
2.58%
Cash to close
$15,400
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $298 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($54k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $54k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 86/100 on livability (#19 in FL, #429 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D.
Leon (urban): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #33 of 73 in FL (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Bond Elementary School (math 38% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,787 of 2,144 statewide, top 84%, 536 students, 84% FRL); Elizabeth Cobb Middle School (math 41% / reading 45%, grade D-, #331 of 571 statewide, top 59%, 769 students, 43% FRL); James Rickards High School (math 23% / reading 37%, grade F, #441 of 667 statewide, top 67%, 1,581 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 45% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 35% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Leon average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 121 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,765 units permitted in Leon County in 2024 (975 in 5+ unit buildings).
Leon County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
7 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.2% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 22.1% vs local median 4.2% in Tallahassee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-487Z959CC6WMG0
· Data 11 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29