512 W Girard St

Atlas, PA 17851

$165,000C

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · Built 1920 · Other · Pending · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,460/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $166/mo
• Annual: $1,996/yr
• Cap rate: 7.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.32%
• DSCR: 1.19
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $166 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (11.5% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $146k (11.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#603 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Mount Carmel Area SD (town): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #455 of 539 in PA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 81 units permitted in Northumberland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Northumberland County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.