4 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,453 sqft ·
Built 1930
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 58 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,581/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$865
Tax + insurance
−$103
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$332
Net cashflow
$281/mo
Annual
$3,377/yr
Cap rate
8.34%
Cash-on-cash
7.31%
DSCR
1.33
1% rule
0.96%
Cash to close
$46,172
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $165k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $281 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (4.1% below list).
It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $158k (4.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 239 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
Current owner paid $65k; list at $165k implies a 154% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-48BEAN2CP74HQC
· Data 1 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29