Newlin Plan

Pensacola, FL 32526

$287,990F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,474 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 222 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,926/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,546
• Tax + insurance: −$491
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $-515/mo
• Annual: $-6,184/yr
• Cap rate: 4.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.49%
• DSCR: 0.67
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $82,533

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $288k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-515 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $220k (23.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (33.1% below list).
• It's been on market 222 days — a 12% lower offer ($253k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $193k (33.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#53 in FL, #924 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Beulah Elementary School (math 53% / reading 57%, grade C, #872 of 2,144 statewide, top 42%, 946 students, 57% FRL); Pine Forest High School (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #494 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 1,870 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 723 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.4% in Pensacola — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 222 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.