1111 77th St NW

West Bradenton, FL 34209

$379,900D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,454 sqft · Built 1984 · SingleFamily · Pending · 85 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,150/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,992
• Tax + insurance: −$486
• HOA: −$12
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$662
• Net cashflow: $-1/mo
• Annual: $-18/yr
• Cap rate: 6.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.73%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $106,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $380k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1 ($-18/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $380k (0.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $315k (17.1% below list).
• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($357k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $315k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#335 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ida M. Stewart Elementary School (math 77% / reading 72%, grade A, #230 of 2,144 statewide, top 12%, 391 students, 34% FRL); Martha B. King Middle School (math 48% / reading 39%, grade D, #329 of 571 statewide, top 58%, 848 students, 63% FRL); Manatee High School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #304 of 667 statewide, top 47%, 1,983 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 514 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $152k; list at $380k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.5% in West Bradenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,150/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($82k/yr) (locally 1126% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?