8221 E Garfield St

Scottsdale, AZ 85257

$217,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 16,866 sqft · Built 1966 · Condo · Active · 573 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,638/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,138
• Tax + insurance: −$362
• HOA: −$8,050
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$554
• Net cashflow: $-7,465/mo
• Annual: $-89,584/yr
• Cap rate: -34.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -147.44%
• DSCR: -5.56
• 1% rule: 1.22%
• Cash to close: $60,760

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $217k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7k ($-90k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $217k).
• It's been on market 573 days — a 12% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $191k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#4 in AZ, #1,756 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Scottsdale Unified District (4240) (urban): math 53% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #30 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 305% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 262 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $112k; list at $217k implies a 94% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate -35.0% vs local median 2.5% in Scottsdale — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 573 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?