3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,178 sqft ·
Built 1996
· Manufactured
· Pending
· 224 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,787/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$456
Tax + insurance
−$211
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$375
Net cashflow
$744/mo
Annual
$8,932/yr
Cap rate
17.48%
Cash-on-cash
39.94%
DSCR
2.78
1% rule
2.05%
Cash to close
$24,360
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $87k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $744 ($9k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $87k).
It's been on market 224 days — a 12% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $77k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $4k of equity ($601 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.4% local appreciation)).
Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,236 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
Boling ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #411 of 826 in TX (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 191 units permitted in Wharton County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $43k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (3.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 224 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-49GXGD3BKT05ER
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29