6392 Draw Ln #40

Palmer Ranch, FL 34238

$180,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,482 sqft · Built 1974 · Condo · Active · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,009/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax + insurance: −$279
• HOA: −$428
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $-63/mo
• Annual: $-758/yr
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.50%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 1.12%
• Cash to close: $50,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-63 ($-758/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $169k (6.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $169k (6.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $239 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ashton Elementary School (math 89% / reading 87%, grade A+, #18 of 2,144 statewide, top 1%, 1,046 students, 28% FRL); Sarasota Middle School (math 82% / reading 78%, grade A+, #21 of 571 statewide, top 4%, 1,278 students, 26% FRL); Riverview High School (math 61% / reading 65%, grade B-, #89 of 667 statewide, top 14%, 2,597 students, 35% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 77% at this address vs 63% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Sarasota average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-8.2%/yr); 490 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.