8916 N 11 St

Phoenix, AZ 85020

$545,000F

6 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,892 sqft · Built 1964 · SingleFamily · Active · 851 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,492/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,858
• Tax + insurance: −$400
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$523
• Net cashflow: $-1,290/mo
• Annual: $-15,476/yr
• Cap rate: 3.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.14%
• DSCR: 0.55
• 1% rule: 0.46%
• Cash to close: $152,600

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $545k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $317k (41.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (54.3% below list).
• It's been on market 851 days — a 12% lower offer ($480k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $249k (54.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Glendale Union High School District (4285) (urban): math 23% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #130 of 249 in AZ (top 52%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 288 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $115k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $235k; list at $545k implies a 132% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 851 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 54% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.