75 Hughes Hollow Rd

Lawrenceburg, TN 38464

$75,000B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Active · 74 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,220/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax + insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $450/mo
• Annual: $5,404/yr
• Cap rate: 14.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.53%
• DSCR: 2.31
• 1% rule: 1.63%
• Cash to close: $21,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $450 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $70k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#105 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Lawrence County (rural): math 29% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #67 of 139 in TN (top 48%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Leoma Elementary (math 26% / reading 23%, grade F, #546 of 952 statewide, top 61%, 538 students, 0% FRL); Lawrence Co High School (math 26% / reading 23%, grade F, #129 of 332 statewide, top 43%, 1,143 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 50% district-wide (50 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 172 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lawrence County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 8 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $75k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.