12 Ridge Ct

Old Brookville, NY 11545

$3,499,000D

6 bd · 6.0 ba · 7,887 sqft · Built 1993 · SingleFamily · Active · 258 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $28,800/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$18,349
• Tax + insurance: −$7,494
• HOA: −$73
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$6,048
• Net cashflow: $-3,164/mo
• Annual: $-37,973/yr
• Cap rate: 5.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.88%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $979,720

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/6.0-bath single-family listed at $3.50M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-38k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $2.94M (16.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.88M (17.7% below list).
• It's been on market 258 days — a 12% lower offer ($3.08M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $2.88M (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $24k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $105k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,119 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• North Shore Central School District (suburban): math 88% / reading 84% proficiency, ranked #24 of 590 in NY (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Glen Head Elementary School (math 82% / reading 82%, grade A+, #138 of 2,108 statewide, top 8%, 371 students, 0% FRL); North Shore Middle School (math 84% / reading 84%, grade A+, #122 of 2,108 statewide, top 6%, 646 students, 0% FRL); North Shore Senior High School (math 100% / reading 72%, 764 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 0% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $2.65M; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 258 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.