3 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,267 sqft ·
Built 1982
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 3 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,363/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,652
Tax + insurance
−$215
HOA
−$225
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$496
Net cashflow
$-225/mo
Annual
$-2,695/yr
Cap rate
5.44%
Cash-on-cash
-3.06%
DSCR
0.86
1% rule
0.75%
Cash to close
$88,200
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $315k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-225 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $275k (12.6% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (25.0% below list).
Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $236k (25.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $22k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
Location reads 78/100 on livability (#6 in AK, #2,553 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
Anchorage School District (urban): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #6 of 21 in AK (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Campbell Stem Elementary (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #104 of 156 statewide, top 70%, 415 students, 47% FRL); Mears Middle School (math 30% / reading 47%, grade F, #17 of 36 statewide, top 46%, 733 students, 30% FRL); Dimond High School (math 37% / reading 41%, grade F, #23 of 61 statewide, top 37%, 1,443 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 34% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 306 units permitted in Anchorage Municipality in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).
Anchorage County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.8% in Anchorage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-4CAPNZB7JNTW66
· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29