4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,604 sqft ·
Built 2026
· Land
· Active
· 91 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,763/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,355
Tax + insurance
−$1,175
HOA
−$7
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$580
Net cashflow
$-1,354/mo
Annual
$-16,243/yr
Cap rate
3.82%
Cash-on-cash
-8.85%
DSCR
0.61
1% rule
0.62%
Cash to close
$125,720
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $449k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (43.6% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $276k (38.5% below list).
It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($409k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $253k (43.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
In year one you build about $9k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
Location reads 63/100 on livability (#713 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
Charlotte (suburban): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #22 of 73 in FL (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 863 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,585 units permitted in Charlotte County in 2024 (703 in 5+ unit buildings).
Charlotte County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $26k; list at $449k implies a 1627% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 2.8% in Grove City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
CashFlowRE · CFR-4CKAX571C3ABB4
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29