1400 Peconic Bay Blvd

Jamesport, NY 11947

$1,795,000B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,190 sqft · Built 1926 · SingleFamily · Pending · 64 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $22,254/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,413
• Tax + insurance: −$2,992
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,673
• Net cashflow: $5,176/mo
• Annual: $62,113/yr
• Cap rate: 9.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.36%
• DSCR: 1.55
• 1% rule: 1.24%
• Cash to close: $502,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $1.79M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($62k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($22k rent vs $1.79M).
• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.69M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.69M (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $66k of equity ($12k loan paydown + $54k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 46/100 on livability (#1,185 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 6 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $305k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $915k; list at $1.79M implies a 96% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $503k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$108k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.