120 D'arbonne Spur

Dubach, LA 71235

$179,900D+

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,280 sqft · Built 2022 · Manufactured · Active · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,345/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax + insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $-11/mo
• Annual: $-136/yr
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.27%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $50,372

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-11 ($-136/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (25.3% below list).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $134k (25.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#231 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, crime B+; Watch: schools C-, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Lincoln Parish (town): math 35% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #24 of 98 in LA (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 171 units permitted in Lincoln Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lincoln County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.