3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,300 sqft ·
Built 2002
· Manufactured
· Active
· 91 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,180/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$766
Tax + insurance
−$243
HOA
−$1,082
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$668
Net cashflow
$421/mo
Annual
$5,053/yr
Cap rate
9.75%
Cash-on-cash
12.36%
DSCR
1.55
1% rule
2.18%
Cash to close
$40,880
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $146k. Condition is rated average.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $421 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $146k).
It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $133k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 67/100 on livability (#585 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
Arlington Central School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #106 of 590 in NY (top 18%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Titusville Intermediate (math 34% / reading 54%, grade F, #1,277 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 409 students, 31% FRL); Lagrange Middle School (math 34% / reading 74%, grade B-, #214 of 729 statewide, top 31%, 865 students, 38% FRL); Arlington High School (math 95% / reading 58%, grade A-, #612 of 1,100 statewide, top 56%, 2,547 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools average 32% FRL vs 16% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 58% at this address vs 71% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Arlington Central School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Watch-outs: HOA is 34% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 213 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
6 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $99k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Moderate: kitchen cabinets
— dated and in need of replacement
Moderate: kitchen countertops
— dated and in need of replacement
Moderate: kitchen appliances
— dated and in need of replacement
Moderate: bathroom vanity
— dated and in need of replacement
Moderate: exterior siding
— moderate wear
Moderate: exterior roof
— moderate wear
CashFlowRE · CFR-4DKFCQC6HTVD7K
· Data 3 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29