14890 Pleasant Bay Ln #3208

Island Walk, FL 34119

$174,900D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Built 2004 · Condo · Active · 151 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,885/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax + insurance: −$292
• HOA: −$325
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $-44/mo
• Annual: $-532/yr
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.09%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $48,972

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $175k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-44 ($-532/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (3.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#692 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Big Cypress Elementary School (math 63% / reading 61%, grade B, #608 of 2,144 statewide, top 29%, 742 students, 47% FRL); Oakridge Middle School (math 75% / reading 67%, grade A, #59 of 571 statewide, top 11%, 1,183 students, 26% FRL); Gulf Coast High School (math 57% / reading 68%, grade B-, #93 of 667 statewide, top 14%, 2,447 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 55% district-wide (24 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 590 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.