4 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,425 sqft ·
Built 1920
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 31 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,363/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$498
Tax + insurance
−$111
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$286
Net cashflow
$467/mo
Annual
$5,607/yr
Cap rate
12.19%
Cash-on-cash
21.08%
DSCR
1.94
1% rule
1.43%
Cash to close
$26,600
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $95k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $467 ($6k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $92k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 69/100 on livability (#195 in KS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
Topeka Public Schools (urban): math 17% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #158 of 169 in KS (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Stout Elem (math 17% / reading 32%); Robinson Middle School (math 10% / reading 19%, grade F, #180 of 219 statewide, top 83%, 360 students, 84% FRL); Topeka High (math 11% / reading 20%, grade F, #248 of 327 statewide, top 76%, 1,514 students, 72% FRL).
Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 132 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 219 units permitted in Shawnee County in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
Shawnee County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
Current owner paid $20k; list at $95k implies a 375% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.4% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 4.3% in Topeka — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-4E0QPG11BX5FKQ
· Data 49 min agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29