54 Overlook Dr

Independence, NJ 07840-4609

$350,000D-

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,484 sqft · Built 1989 · Condo · Under Contract · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,763/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax + insurance: −$683
• HOA: −$420
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$580
• Net cashflow: $-755/mo
• Annual: $-9,061/yr
• Cap rate: 3.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.25%
• DSCR: 0.59
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $98,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $350k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-755 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (38.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $276k (21.0% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $217k (38.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Great Meadows Regional School District (rural): math 31% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #183 of 472 in NJ (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Central Elementary School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #661 of 1,303 statewide, top 54%, 296 students, 11% FRL); Great Meadows Regional Middle School (math 32% / reading 60%, grade D+, #138 of 431 statewide, top 33%, 346 students, 16% FRL) — zoned schools at 13% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 630 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (315 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Warren County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $180k; list at $350k implies a 95% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.