2682 Timberside Dr

Francisville, KY 41048

$280,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,841 sqft · Built 2026 · Townhouse · Active · 184 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,277/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$467
• HOA: −$293
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $-429/mo
• Annual: $-5,146/yr
• Cap rate: 4.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.56%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $78,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $280k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-429 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (22.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (18.7% below list).
• It's been on market 184 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $218k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#170 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Boone County (suburban): math 43% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #12 of 165 in KY (top 7%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North Pointe Elementary School (math 57% / reading 59%, grade C+, #43 of 676 statewide, top 6%, 424 students, 28% FRL); Conner Middle School (math 50% / reading 62%, grade B-, #6 of 217 statewide, top 2%, 896 students, 35% FRL); Conner High School (math 47% / reading 51%, grade D, #15 of 254 statewide, top 6%, 1,443 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 32% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 335 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,430 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (928 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Boone County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.2% in Francisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 184 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.