3320 Marion Oaks Way

Warrington, FL 32507

$247,950D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,741 sqft · Built 1994 · SingleFamily · Pending · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,048/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,300
• Tax + insurance: −$401
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $-83/mo
• Annual: $-992/yr
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.43%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $69,426

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $248k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-83 ($-992/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (5.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (17.4% below list).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $205k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#631 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pleasant Grove Elementary School (math 60% / reading 53%, grade C+, #816 of 2,144 statewide, top 39%, 534 students, 66% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 56% at this address vs 42% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Escambia average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 702 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 8 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.3% in Warrington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.