3 Fern Cir

Berlin, NJ 08091

$222,900C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,052 sqft · Built 1953 · SingleFamily · Pending · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,792/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,169
• Tax + insurance: −$698
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$586
• Net cashflow: $339/mo
• Annual: $4,067/yr
• Cap rate: 8.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.52%
• DSCR: 1.29
• 1% rule: 1.25%
• Cash to close: $62,412

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $223k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $339 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $223k).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#226 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Berlin Township School District (suburban): math 20% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #349 of 472 in NJ (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,018 units permitted in Camden County in 2024 (509 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Camden County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $73k; list at $223k implies a 205% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.8% in Berlin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.