25239 Leather Leaf Ct

Todd Mission, TX 77316

$226,000D+

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,664 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 96 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,138/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,185
• Tax + insurance: −$377
• HOA: −$46
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $81/mo
• Annual: $971/yr
• Cap rate: 6.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.53%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $63,280

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $226k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $81 ($971/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (5.4% below list).
• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $206k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#549 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2283 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 2.9% in Todd Mission — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Kitchen countertops — Minor discoloration and wear on the countertops suggest they may need resurfacing or replacement.
• Minor: Bathroom fixtures — Standard fixtures in the bathrooms may benefit from updating or replacement.
• Minor: Exterior siding — Discoloration and minor wear on the siding suggest it may need repainting or minor repairs.