6 bd · 6.0 ba ·
2,738 sqft ·
Built 2021
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 92 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,790/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,019
Tax + insurance
−$642
HOA
−$46
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$586
Net cashflow
$-503/mo
Annual
$-6,031/yr
Cap rate
4.73%
Cash-on-cash
-5.59%
DSCR
0.75
1% rule
0.72%
Cash to close
$107,800
Investor read
This is a 2 × 3-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $385k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-503 ($-6k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-251/mo.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $312k (18.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $279k (27.5% below list).
It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($350k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $279k (27.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#592 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
Seguin ISD (town): math 26% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #663 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Weinert El (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 479 students, 77% FRL); Jim Barnes Middle (math 24% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 797 students, 75% FRL); Seguin H S (math 24% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,011 of 1,632 statewide, top 63%, 2,101 students, 71% FRL).
Market conditions: 1603 active listings in the ZIP; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).
Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.7% in Seguin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
CashFlowRE · CFR-4FPK108AFZ3GM0
· Data 14 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29