55699 E 31st Ave

Strasburg, CO 80136

$390,000D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,521 sqft · Built 2006 · SingleFamily · Active · 85 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,214/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax + insurance: −$355
• HOA: −$155
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$675
• Net cashflow: $-17/mo
• Annual: $-201/yr
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.18%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $109,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $390k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-17 ($-201/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $387k (0.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $321k (17.6% below list).
• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($367k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $321k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#238 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Strasburg School District 31J (rural): math 36% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #32 of 176 in CO (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Strasburg Elementary School (math 30% / reading 42%, grade F, #420 of 966 statewide, top 44%, 562 students, 33% FRL); Hemphill Middle School (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #129 of 270 statewide, top 51%, 255 students, 36% FRL); Strasburg High School (math 27% / reading 67%, grade D-, #132 of 381 statewide, top 36%, 379 students, 29% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 17% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 119 active listings in the ZIP; 2,299 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (343 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Adams County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.4% in Strasburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.