120 Pierce Dr

Enchanted Oaks, TX 75156

$111,200B+

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,324 sqft · Built 1995 · SingleFamily · Pending · 50 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,819/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$583
• Tax + insurance: −$269
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $584/mo
• Annual: $7,013/yr
• Cap rate: 12.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.52%
• DSCR: 2.00
• 1% rule: 1.64%
• Cash to close: $31,136

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $111k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $584 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $111k).
• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $108k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $769 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,103 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mabank ISD (town): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #273 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.8%/yr); 699 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $28k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $39k; list at $111k implies a 185% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 2.2% in Enchanted Oaks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.