17 Warren Dr

Newport News, VA 23608

$325,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,412 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Active · 35 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,514/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax + insurance: −$510
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$528
• Net cashflow: $-229/mo
• Annual: $-2,743/yr
• Cap rate: 5.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.01%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $91,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-229 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (12.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (22.6% below list).
• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $251k (22.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#123 in VA, #4,018 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, housing A; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Newport News City Public School District (urban): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #112 of 131 in VA (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hilton Elementary (math 47% / reading 72%, grade B-, #536 of 1,108 statewide, top 51%, 382 students, 91% FRL); Mary Passage Middle (math 38% / reading 53%, grade D+, #268 of 342 statewide, top 80%, 944 students, 87% FRL); Denbigh High (math 32% / reading 65%, grade D, #301 of 319 statewide, top 95%, 1,225 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 55% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.9%/yr); 213 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 522 units permitted in Newport News city in 2024 (458 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Newport News County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $239k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.2% in Newport News — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.